Is China Attempting to Influence Local Japanese Opinion through Disinformation Campaigns?
The answer is “yes” according to several sources. This trend is also being confirmed through data analytics and monitoring social media.
Disinformation campaigns are an effective means for state actors to influence or control local opinion through the dissemination of fake news (a form of yellow journalism that relies on eye-catching, inflated headlines for increased sales in lieu of fact-based reporting, often originating in social media and frequently embraced by mainstream media).
In their 2019 report on organized social media manipulation, Oxford University researchers recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as one of the leaders “in the global disinformation order.” (i) The report states that, prior to 2019, PRC disinformation had been aimed at local social media platforms while they have now taken to global platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. (ii) The PRC has a long history of engaging in organized foreign influence operations, particularly against Taiwan and the US, but more recently against the Hong Kong Protest Movement. The methods of disinformation primarily include fake imagery, misquoting officials, proxy organizations used to propagate biased news and information, and (increasingly) computational propaganda from trolls and bots. (iii) According to the executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute Russel Hsiao, the proxy organization approach is the most apparent method used by the PRC in Japan, while social media-focused efforts are ambiguous. (iv)
Okinawa is of particular concern as one of the largest concentrations of US military power in the region.
Since the end of World War II, the United States Military has had a strong presence on the Japanese Island of Okinawa as a strategic bulwark in the region. The island is located between economic and population centers in east Asia and serves to bolster Japan and the West against rival states such as China and North Korea. The US military presence on Okinawa has been controversial for decades as various incidents including murders, rapes, and accidents involving US service members have soured the relationship with the Okinawan people. While there is a substantial movement by the local Okinawans and their government to decrease the US military presence, the national government sees the US presence as vital to the security of the state. Subsequently, those that oppose the US presence in Okinawa and Japan generally have been targeted by smear campaigns. For example, the former governor of Okinawa was dubbed a “Chinese agent” in the press and on social media during the 2014 gubernatorial election for running on a platform of opposition to the US military presence. Many Japanese people hold the unconfirmed, but realistic notion that the PRC is attempting to influence public opinion and Okinawan policy. The significant presence of the US military and profound local animosity make Okinawa a prime target of foreign influence operations through the mass deployment of maligned online discourse.
Hong Kong is a prime example of how Chinese disinformation campaigns are put into practice in real terms. One of the principal methods through which the PRC’s influence operation against the Hong Kong protesters has operated is to highlight the violence of the protestors on social media. This is a likely approach taken in Okinawa as various violent and fatal incidents have already stoked animosity toward the presence of US military bases and service members.
Japan is perhaps the strongest ally to the US in the Asia-Pacific region, and this makes it a likely and compelling target of Chinese information warfare. The local Japanese population and their participation in elections are ripe for China to exert its influence.
Tracking Down Potential Threats
When examining discourse on Twitter around the February 2019 referendum regarding the relocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to Henoko on northern Okinawa, there was a palpable presence of accounts that were geo-inferred as having originated from the PRC. Using a 10% sample of Twitter from 1 January – 28 February 2019, 367.6k Tweets related to the subject were captured. Of these Tweets, 1.1k are geo-inferred as having originated from accounts within the PRC and 42.3% of them are from highly automated accounts. Many of such accounts exhibit distinct signs of troll or bot activity and spread an anti-US base message. Although only 0.3% of Tweets on the issue are from accounts that originated from the PRC, it is likely that there are additional maligned accounts engaging on the issue from the PRC that cannot be conclusively located. Some of the most dubious PRC-located accounts that are spreading an anti-US base message include @WW5C8DY5iu8SyLW, @lensmanjp, @kussaiyatu, @tu94nbo, and @rayox10. Twitter has suspended some of the most blatant offenders of its authenticity rules, such as @nonucs and @fiGXENVxeboZPBz, which suggests that Okinawa-US base conversation has been identified as vulnerable to disinformation.
Where to Go from Here?
Diligence is needed to identify and track how China is using disinformation campaigns and towards what short-and long-term objectives. Japan offers a particularly rich information environment with potentially huge economic, political, and military outcomes through the application of targeted and successful disinformation campaigns.
We must be wary of the threat and prepare/respond accordingly. With events such as the Tokyo Olympics looming this summer and the increase in military spending by the Japanese Government, we are sure to see escalated activity in disinformation campaigns.
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