Through continued acts of brazen irredentism such as the annexation of Crimea and incursion into the sovereign territory into Eastern Ukraine, Russia has signaled its intent to reassert its Cold War sphere of influence by any means necessary. Unlike its hybrid operation in the Donbas or kinetic invasion of Georgia, Russia has adopted a “slow, stealthy, [and] methodical” approach to solidifying its hold over Belarus. The relationship between Minsk and Moscow (and, more specifically, between respective leaders President Alexander Lukashenko and President Vladimir Putin), has been fraught, but trending toward more comprehensive integration given Russia’s position of power and Belarus’ lack of options.
Belarus and Russia are similar on many domestic levels: 1) both have been ruled for decades by autocratic leaders with little tolerance for genuine, organized opposition, 2) both have developed near cult-of-personality political systems, and 3) both regimes are characterized by powerful state-owned (or controlled) enterprises. These similarities are a result of the region’s Soviet legacy, which additionally links the two countries through their Slavic brotherhood and a shared Russo-centric worldview.
On this basis, Belarus and Russia formed a common state in 1996 formalized later in 1999. The focus of this “Union State” has been primarily on economic and defense matters, buttressed by other intergovernmental alliances between Russia and other former Soviet states such as: a loose successor to the USSR, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); the Russia-led security alliance the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO); and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In addition to these formalized associations, a “patchwork of bilateral agreements” connects Moscow and Minsk, the terms of which may justify Russian military intervention in the event of Lukashenko’s deposition and ensuing power vacuum.
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